Clean cooking energy transition in Nigeria: Policy implications for Developing countries

Lack of access to clean cooking energy systems negatively affects the health and welfare of millions of people in developing countries. Different factors such as household income, household size, fuel price, and information spread have been identified as barriers to the widespread uptake of clean cooking systems. However, analyses exploring the dynamic influences of these factors towards accelerating clean cooking from a long-term perspective are limited. Here, we employ a system dynamics modelling framework to simulate how various strategies could affect the adoption of clean cooking systems in Nigeria over time. Our results reveal that clean cooking adoption is a fluctuating process, and the trends present non-linear behaviour. Adoption occurs faster among urban households than rural households, and at low prices of liquefied petroleum gas, many rural households switch to clean cookstoves at higher rates than urban consumers. Without significant policy interventions, not all households would switch to clean cooking, and households with fewer members transition more quickly than larger households. We emphasise that potent policies are needed to accelerate the diffusion and adoption of clean cooking energy systems in Nigeria and other African countries.