Exploring the energy system impacts of Nigeria’s Nationally Determined Contributions and low-carbon transition to mid-century

The 2015 Paris Agreement (COP21) mandated countries to submit their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC). This paper develops the TIMES-Nigeria model and applies it to assess the impacts of Nigeria’s NDC mitigation strategies and their ripple effects on the energy system, modelling four mitigation scenarios in addition to a reference scenario. Increased renewables penetration, energy efficiency improvements, and fuel switching are identified as key mitigation strategies in the Nigerian NDC. Results reveal profound restructuring of the Nigerian energy system favouring solar PV deployment, with the residential sector holding the largest potential for reducing energy demand while the power sector should be the focus for CO2 mitigation. A carbon tax could potentially reduce energy-related emissions by around 77% and boost energy security.