Investigating the Impacts of Energy Access Scenarios in the Nigerian Household Sector by 2030

Lack of access to modern forms of energy continues to hamper socio-economic development in Nigeria, where about 94% and 39% of the population lack access to clean cooking equipment and electricity, respectively. Using the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning Systems (LEAP) model, this study analyses the impacts of different energy access scenarios by 2030 on household energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and local air pollutant emissions, including different assumptions about biomass renewability. Achieving 100% modern energy access by 2030 would reduce final energy demand by around 845 PJ (a 52.4% reduction versus the baseline) and significantly reduce local air pollutants, but would increase CO2 emissions by 16.7 MtCO2 compared to the baseline. The authors argue that realising 100% modern energy access in Nigeria by 2030 requires exploring local and foreign funding sources and coupling energy access programs with income-generating activities.