Modelling the impact of Nigeria household energy policies on energy consumption and CO2 emissions

In response to energy security, environmental degradation, and climate change concerns, the Nigerian federal government developed the National Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Policy (NREEEP), which outlines programs for the household sector, including incorporation of energy-efficient appliances. This study uses the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning Systems (LEAP) modelling framework to analyse the effect of these policies on final energy demand and CO2 emissions, developing a reference (REF) scenario and an energy policy (EPO) scenario and examining knock-on effects if policies are sustained to mid-century. Full implementation of household energy policies in the EPO scenario is found to achieve about 61% and 58% reductions in energy demand by 2030 and 2050 respectively versus REF, but direct total CO2 emissions in the EPO scenario are projected to increase by around 170% and 124% by 2030 and 2050 respectively compared with REF, indicating that current household energy policies are not effective from a climate mitigation perspective and that complementary policies are recommended.