Alternative Scenarios for Low-Carbon Transport in Nigeria: A Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System Model Application

The second target of goal number 11 of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development emphasized the need to provide sustainable transport systems for all. This chapter applies the Nigerian Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning Systems model to evaluate different scenarios for low-carbon transport in Nigeria, developing three fuel-substitution scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU), countermeasure 1 (CM1), and countermeasure 2 (CM2). Results indicate that under BAU, greenhouse gas emissions are expected to reach 39 MtCO2eq in 2040, but this is expected to drop by 33% and 42% under CM1 and CM2 respectively, alongside significant reductions in final energy demand. The chapter also analyses co-benefits from the perspective of local air pollutant emissions and argues that more dedicated policies are needed to keep the Nigerian transport sector on a sustainable path.