Resource Library / Journal Article / From sector coupling to carbon neutrality: Modeling the future of energy transitions through integrated, multi-level decarbonization strategies for India
From sector coupling to carbon neutrality: Modeling the future of energy transitions through integrated, multi-level decarbonization strategies for India
Journal Article
15 November 2026
Abstract
Achieving net-zero emissions is challenged by deep uncertainties related to technology availability, as well as resource constraints. Existing studies often emphasize national or single-sector perspectives, limiting their ability to fully assess deep decarbonization. This study analyses India’s long-term energy transition using a state-level, multi-sector optimization model (KINESYS-TIMES), soft-linked with the SWITCH dispatch model to assess operational feasibility under high renewable penetration.
The study evaluates the robustness of alternative net-zero pathways under constraints derived from the techno-sustainable potential of renewables and the availability of emerging technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen. Results show that while net-zero emissions can be achieved under unconstrained conditions, the consideration of limits on renewable deployment and key technologies significantly alter system outcomes. Restricting carbon-capture technologies and hydrogen leads to the emergence of a structural emission floor, with residual emissions of approximately 123–228 Mt. CO₂/year in 2070, indicating that net-zero becomes infeasible under these conditions.
These constraints also have substantial economic implications. Total system costs increase from 557 billion USD (annually) in the baseline to 603 billion USD in the least-cost net-zero scenario, and up to 787 billion USD in the most constrained case, representing an increase of approximately 8–41%. The total net-zero system costs (603–787 billion USD annually in 2070) correspond to approximately 3.23–4.63% of India’s projected GDP (PPP), with the incremental cost above baseline representing an additional 0.25–1.36% of GDP.
When normalized by emissions reduction, the differential average (relative to the baseline) per unit abatement cost ranges from USD 10/tCO₂ in the unconstrained net-zero scenario to USD 53/tCO₂ in the most constrained case, while the shadow price from the model on the emission constraint escalates from USD 597/tCO₂ to USD 3226/tCO₂, signaling a feasibility cliff when CCS is unavailable.
The findings highlight that achieving net-zero emissions in India requires a diverse portfolio of mitigation options, with CCS and hydrogen playing a critical role alongside electrification and renewable expansion under deep uncertainty. These results should be interpreted as conditional energy system configurations, as the framework does not capture macroeconomic feedbacks, rebound effects, material constraints, or behavioral change, and therefore represents technology-focused transition pathways rather than a fully integrated socio-economic assessment.
Summary
This study uses a detailed, state-by-state model of India’s energy system to test how robust different net-zero pathways really are. Rather than assuming unlimited access to renewables, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and hydrogen, the researchers stress-tested the system under realistic constraints on how much of each technology could actually be deployed.
Net-zero is achievable if the country can fully draw on CCS and hydrogen alongside renewables and broader electrification of the country. But if those technologies are restricted, India hits a hard limit: even with maximum renewable deployment, the country would still emit somewhere between 123 and 228 million tonnes of CO₂ every year in 2070. Pursuing net-zero would raise India’s annual energy system costs from a baseline of $557 billion to between $603 billion and $787 billion by 2070, an increase of about 8–41% depending on how constrained the technology options are. For the least-cost pathway, the additional cost is only around 0.25% of India’s projected GDP.
Achieving net-zero emissions in India requires a diverse portfolio of mitigation options. CCS and hydrogen play a critical role alongside electrification and renewable expansion under deep uncertainty. The study focuses on the energy system itself and doesn’t attempt to capture broader economic ripple effects, changes in behavior, or material supply constraints, so the findings describe technically feasible pathways rather than a full picture of India’s economic transition.
Presented At/Published In
Applied Energy
Country
India
Associated Resources
- An optimization model for low carbon electricity transition planning: a case study from India
- Decarbonizing the Indian Power Sector: Assessing the Impact of a 30-Year Plan to Net Zero
- SWITCH Model Adaptation for India
- Towards a Zero-Carbon Electricity System for India in 2050: IDEEA Model-Based Scenarios Integrating Wind and Solar Complementarity and Geospatial Endowments
- A framework for equitable state-level renewable energy target allocation in India
- Integrated energy system modeling perspectives for future decarbonization pathways based on sector coupling, life-cycle emissions and vehicle-to-grid integration
- Assessing readiness for CC(U)S: are we there yet?
Citation
Agarwal, A. Kanudia, T. Sharma, From sector coupling to carbon neutrality: Modeling the future of energy transitions through integrated, multi-level decarbonization strategies for India, Applied Energy, Volume 423, 2026, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.128378.