Sustainable energy pathways for land transport in Nigeria

We used a bottom-up optimisation model to explore the energy system implications of five alternative policy pathways for the Nigerian transport sector: fuel switching, improved fuel economy, modal shifting, improved logistics, and a carbon tax, for the period 2010-2050. Results show that the alternative pathways will significantly reduce energy demand and CO2 emissions; improved vehicle fuel economy and a carbon tax can lower Nigeria’s CO2 emissions by 42.8% and 26.9% respectively in 2050 compared with the reference case. Energy consumption and CO2 emissions are otherwise expected to increase sixfold between 2010 and 2050 under business-as-usual. Low-carbon pathways will also enhance air quality, energy security, and the productive use of energy, with improved vehicle fuel economy and compressed natural gas playing a key role in the low-carbon transition of Nigerian transport.