Resource Library / Journal Article / Rapid cost decrease of renewables and storage accelerates the decarbonization of China’s power system
Rapid cost decrease of renewables and storage accelerates the decarbonization of China’s power system
Journal Article
19 May 2020
Abstract
The costs for solar photovoltaics, wind, and battery storage have dropped markedly since 2010, however, many recent studies and reports around the world have not adequately captured such dramatic decrease. Those costs are projected to decline further in the near future, bringing new prospects for the widespread penetration of renewables and extensive power-sector decarbonization that previous policy discussions did not fully consider. Here we show if cost trends for renewables continue, 62% of China’s electricity could come from non-fossil sources by 2030 at a cost that is 11% lower than achieved through a business-as-usual approach. Further, China’s power sector could cut half of its 2015 carbon emissions at a cost about 6% lower compared to business-as-usual conditions.
Summary
Recent dramatic decrease in costs for renewable energy enables the authors to evaluate prospects for accelerating China’s decarbonization. The costs for energy from wind, solar, and storage are affected by many factors such as policy drivers and technological innovation. However, this paper’s sensitivity analyses show the structural transformation of China’s power sector is fairly consistent, as long as the cost of renewable technology follows the global trend.
This paper uses three scenarios alongside business as usual to model the impact of renewables on China’s power sector.
- If the costs for solar, wind, and storage follow recent global trends, by 2030 China could derive 62% of needed electricity from non-fossil sources. Total costs under the low-cost renewables scenario are 11% lower than those under the BAU scenario.
- Under the carbon constraints scenario, China could eliminate half of its 2015 carbon emissions from the power sector by 2030 with 6% lower cost, while delivering 77% of electricity from non-fossil sources.
- In the deep carbon constraints scenario, an 80% emissions reduction from the 2015 level is technically feasible by 2030 but involves about a 21% higher power cost than under the BAU scenario and a $21/tCO2 cost of conserved carbon.
China has launched a national emissions-trading-system with a price range of $3-14.5/t CO2, and the carbon price is expected to rise to an average of $16.5/t CO2, ranging $4-20/tCO2 by 2030.
Fast decarbonization of China’s power system is both technically feasible and economically beneficial to China’s development. It also offers the prospect of large emissions mitigation with a global impact.
Presented At/Published In
Nature Communications
Country
China
Associated Resources
- How hard are hard-to-abate sectors? Rethinking industrial decarbonization pathways
- SWITCH Model Adaptation for China
- China’s Carbon Emission Trading System: Past, Present, and Future
- Decarbonizing the Indian Power Sector: Assessing the Impact of a 30-Year Plan to Net Zero
- Fossil Fuel Lock In vs. Clean Power: Pathways for the Developing Asian Region by 2050-2060
- Emission trading scheme reshapes the decarbonisation pathways of China’s power sector
- Toward efficient resource adequacy: The role of shared reserves in China’s power grid
Citation
He, G., Lin, J., Sifuentes, F. et al. Rapid cost decrease of renewables and storage accelerates the decarbonization of China’s power system. Nat Commun 11, 2486 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16184-x(opens in new tab)