Fossil Fuel Lock In vs. Clean Power: Pathways for the Developing Asian Region by 2050-2060

This study asks whether four structurally distinct developing Asian economies — Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, and Thailand — can decarbonize their power sectors by mid-century, and whether integrating demand-side measures alongside supply-side expansion materially changes the cost, land, and employment profile of that transition.

The paper targets a specific gap in existing modelling by including demand-side flexibility and energy efficiency. The researchers used detailed national models for Bangladesh and Thailand (built specifically for this study) and drew on existing published research for India and Indonesia. They then compared two pathways to a fully clean power system by mid-century: one that builds more renewables and storage to meet demand (“supply-side-only”), and one that also actively manages demand through energy efficiency and demand-side flexibility, including shifting when people use electricity to line up better with solar output (“integrated”).

The study’s model‑based power‑sector planning confirms that fossil-fuel-free clean power systems are achievable by 2050–2060. Integrating demand-side solutions eases this transition by reducing the need for supply-side investment mobilization and land conversion requirements, while creating new jobs.

In Bangladesh, the integrated pathway lowers investment need by ~€112 billion, halves land use, and creates ~0.46 million more jobs than supply-only planning. Thailand’s investment requirements fall from €230 billion to €120 billion; land needs drop by ~2,460 km², and employment rises by ~2.4 million. India’s mid-century power system (~2,531 GW, including ~1,728 GW of solar) requires ~€1.90 trillion and ~44,000 km² of land, underscoring the scale of mobilization required. Indonesia’s pathway expands capacity 11-fold to ~1034 GW by 2060, with ~63 GW of storage and ~€136 billion in cumulative investment, driven by solar, hydro, and geothermal.

Recently built coal assets in all four countries creates substantial stranded-asset risks, ~€23.32 billion in Indonesia, €60-70 billion in India,  ~€24 million in Bangladesh, and ~€2.77 billion in Thailand. Unequal investment capacity, and fossil-sector employment also pose special challenges to a just transition.

The integrated pathway in Bangladesh and India reduces the need for supply-side annual investment compared to the 2025 investment level, while for Thailand, it is very close, but higher than the planned investment level. Findings estimate the losses ranging from about €24 million in Bangladesh up to €60-70 billion in India.

Overall, the comparative evidence confirms that by committing to integrated pathways, emerging Asian economies can expand their clean power systems at lower cost, with less land, and with lower emissions. Their success hinges on:

• early, large‑scale deployment of energy efficiency and demand-side flexibility to better optimize system size;
• timely, well‑planned coal and gas phase‑down backed by dedicated just‑transition institutions and social protections for workers and affected regions;
• scaling‑up of investment through domestic reforms and international climate finance; and
• robust frameworks for land‑use governance, grid modernization and diversified storage.